Global economic growth continues to lose steam in late 2025 as policy uncertainty, rising tariffs, and geopolitical shifts weigh heavily on markets. The IMF’s October 2025 World Economic Outlook projects global growth at about 3.2 % in 2025, slightly down from prior expectations, with growth slipping further to around 3.1 % in 2026. Meanwhile, the OECD flagged that growth may slow even more, their Interim Economic Outlook cites cooling investment and weakening demand as contributors to slowing GDP.
One signal that markets are watching closely: central banks are showing mixed signals. For instance, Goldman Sachs recently revised its outlook for the Bank of England, forecasting an interest-rate cut in November 2025 amid sticky inflation and softening labour dynamics. At the same time, large economies face the risk that trade friction or further regulatory clampdowns could curtail investment and raise borrowing costs.
In this environment, where fiscal policy, trade policy, and monetary policy intersect, investors and policymakers alike must navigate a delicate balance. Stimulus or infrastructure investment may be welcomed, but only if paired with credible reform. Meanwhile, companies are adjusting their strategies (e.g. capital allocation, supply-chain sourcing) in response to shifting regulatory and trade regimes. Economic resilience now depends not just on short-term stimulus, but on long-term clarity and predictability in governance.